Abstract
Landscape transformations in rapidly urbanizing Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao (GHKM) regions of South China represent the most complex and dynamic processes altering the local ecology and environment. In this study, Land Change Modeler (LCM) is applied to land use land cover (LULC) maps for the years 2005, 2010, and 2017, derived from Landsat images, with the aim of understanding land use land cover change patterns during 2005–2017 and, further, to predict the future scenario of the years 2024 and 2031. Furthermore, the changes in spatial structural patterns are quantified and analyzed using selected landscape morphological metrics. The results show that the urban area has increased at an annual rate of 4.72% during 2005–2017 and will continue to rise from 10.31% (20,228.95 km2) in 2017 to 16.30% (31,994.55 km2) in 2031. This increase in urban area will encroach further into farmland and fishponds. However, forest cover will continue to increase from 45.02% (88,391.98 km2) in 2017 to 46.88% (92,049.62 km2) in 2031. This implies a decrease in the mean Euclidian nearest neighbor distance (ENN_MN) of forest patches (from 217.57 m to 206.46 m) and urban clusters (from 285.55 m to 245.06 m) during 2017–2031, indicating an accelerated landscape transformation if the current patterns of the change continues over the next decade. Thus, knowledge of the current and predicted LULC changes will help policy and decision makers to reconsider and develop new policies for the sustainable development and protection of natural resources.
Highlights
Today, urban growth represents powerful engines for economic prosperity and growth
The simulated image was compared with the actual land use land cover image of the same year, i.e., for 2017, all the Kappa values and relative operating characteristics value were greater than 80%
This study has examined the features of land use land cover change and simulated future land use land cover and urban growth of the GHKM using Land Change Modeler (LCM)
Summary
Urban growth represents powerful engines for economic prosperity and growth. changes in land use land cover (LULC) are pervasive and subjects of great concern worldwide [1]. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division (2017), China’s total urban population has increased from 11.80% (7726 (10,000 persons)) in 1950 to 58.52% (139,008 (10,000 persons)) in 2017, and is predicted to reach 76.10% by the end of 2050 [7]. This situation has simultaneously strengthened economic localism, as built land produces more revenue [3]. These significant changes cause continuous stress on agricultural land and other natural and semi natural resources [8,9,10]
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