Land use change propensity maps

Abstract

Land-use control and planning instruments face new challenges amid growing pressure for urbanization and annexation of valuable agricultural land and natural areas. This paper presents the land-use change propensity map, which shows the local potential for specific land-use changes. Propensity is derived empirically on the basis of historical land-use changes, with an explicit evaluation of characteristics that contributed to land-use change.Each step in creating a propensity map is described: selecting data that best represents land-use changes, identifying potential drivers of land-use change and the statistical inference of their impact on land-use change on the basis of observed historical land-use changes. The resulting propensity for land-use change is represented in the form of a binary logit model that evaluates the probability of specific land-use changes.A series of propensity maps for the territory of the Tábor microregion in the Czech Republic was created to demonstrate the method. The scale of the propensity maps is 1:310,000, and they cover an area of 1002 km2. Each propensity map represents the specific propensity for conversion from non-urban uses to family, multi-family and individual recreation houses. The evaluated propensity can be further compared to existing or proposed land-use regulations.