Abstract
ContextPredicting habitat use patterns is a key issue in the management of large herbivore populations. Particularly, indicators providing a model of the spatial distribution of a population in a simple way, without the necessity of laborious field research, are still being sought. Analysis of historical landscape changes can be one of such predictive tools.ObjectivesWe tested the hypothesis that historical changes in land use can be used as an effective factor enabling prediction of spatial distribution. As a case study, data on habitat preferences of European bison Bison bonasus (wisents) were used.MethodsSpatial distribution of 17302 records of the presence of wisents, collected over the period of 10 years, was compared using contemporary and historical habitat maps for the Bieszczady Mts. (Poland). The area of approx. 87 thousand ha was selected, where the density of human population decreased over four times, and the percentage of forests increased from over 30% to almost 80% due to land abandonment.ResultsWisents were recorded significantly more frequently in parts of the forest that in the past were used for agriculture. We found that identification of parts of the forest overgrowing former cultivated fields makes it possible to predict the spatial distribution of wisent herds with very high probability.ConclusionsInformation on historical changes in land use can be used as a simple and effective factor enabling prediction of habitat selection by wisents. Such an approach can potentially be useful for similar assessments of other large wild herbivores.
Highlights
We found that identification of parts of the forest overgrowing former cultivated fields makes it possible to predict the spatial distribution of wisent herds with very high probability
In a situation where forests cover the least agriculturally suitable parts of the continent (Wulf et al 2010) the forest wildlife is forced to occur at sites with poor soils. This in turn, determines the abundance and quality of available plants, which is important for herbivores being directly dependent upon the availability and properties of their food base, and sensitive to decrease of carrying capacity of their home ranges (Dimbleby 1984; Drent and Prins 1987; Birks et al 1999; Vera 2000)
The results of the association analysis show that, for the Open ? forest relationship, the values of the support index for the received data exceed the values of this parameter for the expected data in every case (Table 2). This indicates an existence of a rule that wisents more often occur in areas that are covered by the forest but used to be open in the past
Summary
We tested the hypothesis that historical changes in land use can be used as an effective factor enabling prediction of spatial distribution. Data on habitat preferences of European bison Bison bonasus (wisents) were used
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