Abstract
Western Bahia is a critical region in Brazil’s recent expansion of agricultural output. Its outstanding increase in production is associated with strong growth in cropland area and irrigation. Here we present analyses of Western Bahian historical changes in land use, including irrigated area, and suitability for future agricultural expansion that respects permanent protection areas and the limits established by the Brazilian Forest Code in the Cerrado biome. For this purpose, we developed a land use and land cover classification database using a random forest classifier and Landsat images. A spatial multicriteria decision analysis to evaluate land suitability was performed by combining this database with precipitation and slope data. We demonstrate that between 1990 and 2020, the region’s total agricultural area increased by 3.17 Mha and the irrigated area increased by 193,480 ha. Throughout the region, the transition between the different classes of land use and land cover followed different pathways and was strongly influenced by land suitability and also appears to be influenced by Brazil’s new Forest Code of 2012. We conclude that even if conservation restrictions are considered, agricultural area could nearly double in the region, with expansion possible mostly in areas we classify as moderately suitable for agriculture, which are subject to climate hazards when used for rainfed crops but are otherwise fine for pastures and irrigated croplands.
Highlights
Brazil had a much smaller role in global agriculture just a few decades ago, but it has recently become one of the top global exporters of food, feed, and fiber and is currently the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, the second largest exporter of maize, and the fourth largest exporter of cotton [1]
Most highly suitable land is already being used for agriculture—mainly as highly productive croplands, soybeans and cotton
In response to the scarcity of highly suitable land, the limitations imposed by the new Forest Code around 2012, and energy tariff incentives to irrigation after 2013, farmers invested in cropland intensification through investments in irrigation systems, which increased output, simplified individual logistics, and stagnated deforestation
Summary
Brazil had a much smaller role in global agriculture just a few decades ago, but it has recently become one of the top global exporters of food, feed, and fiber and is currently the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, the second largest exporter of maize, and the fourth largest exporter of cotton [1]. Part of this production increase is related to the expansion of crop areas in agricultural frontiers and to growth in yields [2]. Assessing only the national potential for future expansion of grain and fiber production disregards the intimate connection between land and irrigation and these
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