Land-use Change Modeling in a Brazilian Indigenous Reserve: Construction of a Reference Scenario for the Suruí REDD Project

Abstract

Interactions of indigenous peoples with the sur- rounding non-indigenous society are often the main sources of social and environmental changes in indigenous lands. In the case of the Surui in Brazilian Amazonia's arc of defores- tation, these influences are leading to deforestation and log- ging that threaten both the forest and the sustainability of the group's productive systems. The Surui tribal leadership has initiated a proposal for an economic alternative based on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This has become a key case in global discussions on indigenous participation in REDD. The realism of the baseline scenario that serves as a reference for determining the amount of deforestation and emissions avoided by the proposed project is critical to assuring the reality of the carbon benefits claimed. Here we examine the SIMSURUI model, its input parameters and the implications of the Surui Forest Carbon Project for indigenous participation in climate mitiga- tion efforts.