Abstract
Abstract. This study presents an inversion scheme with uncertainty analysis for a land subsidence modelling by a Monte Carlo filter in order to contribute to the decision-making on the groundwater abstraction. For real time prediction and uncertainty analysis under the limited computational resources and available information in emergency situations, one dimensional vertical land subsidence simulation was adopted for the forward modelling and the null-space Monte Carlo method was applied for the effective resampling. The proposed scheme was tested with the existing land subsidence monitoring data in Tokyo lowland, Japan. The results demonstrated that the prediction uncertainty converges and the prediction accuracy improves as the observed data increased with time. The computational time was also confirmed to be acceptable range for a real time execution with a laptop.
Highlights
Groundwater is expected to be one of the alternative water resources to the tap water system under emergency situations such as huge earthquakes
For the decision-making on the groundwater abstraction, the land subsidence modelling with uncertainty analysis can play an important role to predict the future land subsidence under the emergency groundwater abstraction
It was confirmed that the prediction uncertainty decreases and the prediction accuracy improves as additional observation data is included (Figs. 4 and 5)
Summary
Groundwater is expected to be one of the alternative water resources to the tap water system under emergency situations such as huge earthquakes. The groundwater abstraction may mitigate the water resources shortage temporarily while the land subsidence will increase the vulnerability to the flooding in the future. For the decision-making on the groundwater abstraction, the land subsidence modelling with uncertainty analysis can play an important role to predict the future land subsidence under the emergency groundwater abstraction. A realistic numerical simulation of land subsidence often requires much effort. Both the groundwater mass balance and the force equilibrium in the formation have to be simultaneously solved because the land subsidence is a hydro-mechanically coupled process. A huge number of forward model runs are often necessary for the uncertainty analysis because the land subsidence model contains many physical parameters and the information on their values in the heterogeneous formations are generally not known
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