La trasparenza e l’affidabilità dei sondaggi elettorali in Italia al tempo di internet e dei social media

Abstract

The article presents the results of a research on electoral polls disseminated by the mass media in Italy and published on the institutional website www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it. All the electoral polls published on the institutional website from 1 January 2017 to 9 September 2022 were analyzed. In the period considered, 1.537 polls were published. The article examines their sample size, their response rates in relation to the different interviewing techniques, and the related sampling and weighting schemes. It proposes some solutions to improve the methodological transparency of the polls and make the results provided by the various polling agencies more usable. In summary, the results of our analyzes show that in Italy the electoral polls in the 21st century are going through a difficult transition period compared to the previous century. Among the various factors that in recent years make it particularly difficult to conduct polls, the spread of new communication tool and the general spread of the internet and the increase in subjects who refuse to respond to an electoral poll take in particular importance.