La compétitivité des exportations polonaises sur les marchés de l'OCDE de 1972 à 1988

Abstract

The competitiveness of Polish exports in OECD markets, 1972 to 1988 The purpose of this study is to compare exports to OECD markets from Poland and from the New Industrialized Countries (NIC) in the period between 1972 and 1988. What is aimed at is a statistical analysis leading to an evaluation of Poland's chances of recapturing the markets lost as a result of the serious crisis of the 1980's. For the purpose of the present study, the authors have taken a limited sample of the NIC : three Latin America countries (Argentine, Brazil and Mexico) and three countries of S.E. Asia (South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong). Although there may be marked contrasts among the countries of Latin America and those of Asia, all of these countries nevertheless show certain common characteristics in matters relating to economic growth, the development of manufacturing industry, and trade in manufactured goods. The Polish debt continued to grow steadily throughout the 1980's, and at present limits the recently elected Polish leadership in its freedom to manoeuvre, already restricted as it is. What are the real chances of Poland's paying off its debt ? The task is all the more arduous, since the loss by Poland of the markets won during the decade from 1970 to 1980 was accompanied by the strengthening position of the NIC. The rapid industrialization of certain developing countries, followed by their appearance in force on the markets of the OECD, constitutes a new element in international trade. The statistical analysis covering the period 1972-1988 proves the existence of similarities in the choice of categories of products exported by Poland, Latin America and S.E. Asia, and clearly shows how Poland's position has been eroded in the face of her competitors. The results obtained from analysis of the relevant structural coefficients lead to the following overwhelming conclusion : the most competitive Polish products on OECD markets have been foodstuffs, raw materials and fuel, that is to say products with very little value added. The technological gulf between Poland and the NIC continues to widen especially since the changes made in 1979. The trends noted in Polish exports are the reverse of those which typify the NIC, in that the latter are increasingly specializing in exports of equipment and manufactured products with a considerable technological input. Having evaluated Poland's prospects and potential especially in the country's two main categories of exports to OECD markets (electro-mechanical products and chemical products) the authors finally speculate on Poland's chances of facing up to competition from the NIC. The present unresolved socio-political situation in which Poland finds herself, and the recent initiatives of the European community in her favour, leave room for hope that she may find new openings on the European market. On the other hand, it is difficult to predict if certain approaches to the market in the developing countries, which have been in train since 1980, will be followed through.