Abstract
Initiated by the relaxation of moneraty policy of summer 1982, the american recovery has since been stimulated by fiscal measures and fuelled by foreign capital. In a moderately inflationist environment, private investment has improved following the recovery of profits. World imports will increase rapidly and many countries will gain substantial market shares. The improvement of economic activity will spread throughout OECD countries in 1984. An acceleration in Europe will offset a slowdown in the USA, caused by a lesser fiscal stimulus, tighter monetary policy and a diversion of foreign capital flows towards Japan and West Germany. The weakening of the dollar and renewed tensions on interest rates and prices in the USA will contrast with slacker monetary policy and lower inflation elsewhere. In France, despite the stagnation of personal income, activity has help up owing to borrowing abroad and improved exports. However, the foreign trade deficit will not be eliminated before the end of 1984. Profits will continue to recover owing to reductions in the work-force and the increase of export profit margins. Correspondingly, inflation should be lower.
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