Abstract
Abstract The global climate regime today consists of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) and its associated Kyoto Protocol. The Framework Convention establishes a general goal—preventing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’. The Kyoto Protocol is but the first of many protocols intended to achieve this ambition. As I was finishing this paper, news broke that Russia had ratified the Kyoto Protocol. As a consequence, Kyoto will now enter into force and be binding upon all its parties. Romano Prodi, president of the European Commission, called this ‘a huge success for the international fight against climate change’. However, history may judge the moment differently. Entry into force may only expose Kyoto's fundamental weaknesses. One thing is clear: Kyoto will not stabilize concentrations at any level, let alone one that avoids ‘dangerous interference’ with the climate. Kyoto only constrains the emissions of some (not all) countries by a little bit for a very short period of time. Stabilization will require deeper cuts, by more countries; and these will need to be permanent. By design, Kyoto's importance lay in creating a foundation upon which further emission reductions could be achieved. Kyoto was intended to be a first step.
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