Kurs walutowy a inflacja w Polsce. Wpływ kredytów walutowych

Abstract

It has been widely believed that the exchange rate depreciation of local currency results in an increase of domestic inflation. This notion is based on the assumption that depreciation of local currency will give the economy’s competiveness a boost in international trade which in turn will increase overall demand and inflation. Additionally, some prices set on the international market will increase directly in terms of local currency after such a depreciation. The purpose of this article is to verify the hypothesis that local currency depreciation has a negative impact on inflation in Poland through the credit channel, i.e. foreign currency denominated loans. In Poland a significant open foreign exchange position is related to households’ exposure to foreign currency loans (particularly Swiss franc mortgages). Taking this into consideration the depreciation of the Polish zloty results in lower demand from households indebted in foreign currencies and imbalances in the banking system. The hypothesis was verified through observation of the dependence between the share of foreign currency loans and core inflation in 2015-2016 for Poland and comparable economies. Observation of data in most of the countries confirms the hypothesis that the higher the share of foreign currency loans, the lower the core inflation (in the environment of local currency weakness). The article enriches economic science with an analysis of an open foreign exchange market position and its impact on inflation as potential tool for government and central bank policy. An analysis of the entire open foreign exchange position of the economy, including an analysis of the international trade channel could provide important findings in the area of optimal portfolio building in the foreign exchange market and can have possible regulatory implications.