Korean Politics and U.S. Policy: Higher Pressure and Lower Profile

Abstract

The long struggle for democracy in South Korea, with its many ups and downs, is on the verge of what may be either a watershed, a precipice, or another major fork in the road. As it strives to come to terms with a traumatic aborted effort at constitutional revision, often violent antiregime protests, and difficult preparations for selecting another president later this year based on methods that remain uncertain, South Korea's political future is more doubtful than it has been for years. South Korean society seems poised for either a landmark (but still tenuous) political compromise that could set the stage for a more pragmatic political future, a truly severe political crisis threatening to reimpose overt military rule, or a frustrated parting of the ways, leading to increased political polarization. Regardless of which course occurs in Korea, it will have a major impact on the United States. U.S. policy in response to these impending developments is uncertain as yet, and political events in the Republic of Korea (ROK) may leave the United States ill-prepared to cope adequately. It is time for the U.S. to reassess its policies toward South Korean politics and adopt more flexible contingency plans. Just as it did in the Philippines and is doing in South Africa, Washington should prepare itself to get on board while the getting is good. Times are changing rapidly in Korea and the United States needs to adapt much more quickly than it has. The Chun Doo-hwan government has suffered repeated domestic political assaults. The opposition, though stymied during his first years in power, has rebounded greatly, and its resurgence has been aided most profoundly by the widespread distrust of the Chun government, which is of a magnitude that dwarfs popular feelings toward the previous Park Chung-