(Keynote) Status & Challenges in Today's Atomic Layer Processing Market

Abstract

The global market for atomic-layer deposition (ALD) and chemical-vapor deposition (CVD) metal precursors for semiconductor manufacturing in 2020 was worth ~US$640M [1]. Driven by advanced logic, DRAM and 3D-NAND memory chip fabrication needs, demand for ALD and CVD metal precursors is forecast to see a 2020-2025 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~10%. In the short-term forecast, sees the global semiconductor market as very healthy with 15-20% Year-over-Year (YoY) growth in 2021 revenues [2], and overall critical materials market growth >7% YoY. The greatest material demand increases are seen in ALD/CVD metal precursors, and in specialty wet cleans that often are integrated with metal deposition and etching. All ALD/CVD metal precursors are in healthy demand, since ALD is critical for fabs running 22-45nm nodes as well as for fabs at the leading edge at 16/14 nm and below. In particular, cobalt (Co) and hafnium (Hf) precursors saw 18-20% year-over-year (YoY) growth in 2020, and are forecasted to see strong demand through 2025. Zirconium (Zr) used for DRAM capacitors saw a lower growth but is a big segment on its ow. Ruthenium (Ru) metal is slowly replacing some of the Co and tungsten (W) interconnects on the most advanced logic chips, with anticipated precursor revenue growth to US$10M in 2025 for this highly strategic material. Metals to observe the next years include molybdenum (Mo), niobium (Nb) and lanthanum (La). The long-term revenue outlook for precursors continues to be good driven by: replacement of PVD processes to meet challenging specification for 3D and high aspect ratio device architecture, driven my lateral and stacked scalingReplacement of high themperature diffusion processes (oxidation and nitridation) with low thermal budget plasma ALD processes.Implementation of leading-edge logic nodes with a higher penetration of ALD processes in automotive and the EV transition of the global vehicle fleet.Growing need for ALD films in new semiconductor device technologies and new products: Spin-transfer torque MRAM (STT-MRAM), Resistive RAM (ReRAM), Ferroelectric FET (FeFET) and RAM (FRAM) and Cross-Point memoryImplementation of ALD in emerging new technologies: Photovoltaic, Display, MEMS, Power Electronics, LED/µLED, Optical, Lithium Battery (EVs, Mobile), Parts and powder coating, Medical / Healthcare. New precursors will be needed to meet improved performance for 3D devices and lower thermal budgets as well as reduced cost of ownership. New metals and new metal precursors, mainly for interconnects and contacts, are being continuously researched (e.g. W, Co, Ru, La, Mn).ALD materials and Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) tools are needed for multi-patterning lithography used with Deep-UV (DUV) Immersion and with Extreme-UV (EUV) in leading logic and memory fabs. Multi-patterning typically uses low-temperature Plasma-Enhanced ALD (PEALD), either in clusters of 8-16 single-wafer chambers, or in “Spatial” high-throughput tools. It is anticipated that fab investments in Asia will allow South Korean and Chinese OEMs to win near-term ALD orders, and they may soon compete with US, EU, and Japanese OEMs in the global tool market for standard processes that are commoditized. Recent actions taken by the new US administration has boosted logic fab investments in the US and in total USD 70 B leading edge fab investments are on the horizon the next three years, which will generate a need for both ALD equipment and a healthy precursor supply chain on all materials above going forward.