Kenya’s ageing population: Current and future prospects

Abstract

Introduction: By 2050, 1 in 6 people in the world will be aged over 65 while in 2019 seventeen countries globally reported that a fifth of their populations was geriatric. It is estimated that by 2030, Europe will be home to 24 percent of the world’s ageing population. Meantime, Japan has continued to take lead with the highest proportion of elderly persons. However, by 2050, Korea will surpass Japan. Geriatric population in developing countries is on a trajectory outpacing the developed countries. To confirm this trajectory, sub Saharan Africa is home to the youngest populations where Niger - with a median age of only 15.4 – leads among 17 countries globally. Study Objectives: This study aims to analyse Kenya’s population ageing with a view to presenting its growth since 1999 and projecting its future up to 2050. Study Data and Methods: The study uses data from the Kenya Population and Housing Censuses of 1999, 2009 and 2019. Multiple demographic analyses softwares are used, namely: US Census Bureau’s Population Analysis System (PAS); United Nations Population Division’s Software Package for Mortality Measurement (Mortpak) and Spectrum. Findings: Kenya’s population has grown by almost 20 million in the past two decades from 28.7 million in 1999 to 47.6 million in 2019. During the same period, the elderly population has grown from 3.3 percent to 3.94 percent. After stagnating between 1998 and 2008-09, Kenya’s fertility dropped rapidly from 4.6 births per woman in 2008-09 to 3.4 births per woman a decade later. The transition from youthful to aging population and therefore a shift in the population structure is expected as median age rises from 20 years in 2020 to 28 years by 2050 while total dependency ratio will drop from 75 percent to 48 percent during the same period. Rapid growth is projected in the aging population which is set to more than double from 1.87 million in 2019 to 4.77 million by 2050. Life expectancy will be higher among female geriatric population. By 2050, Kenya’s ageing population (60 and over) will be higher than that of children under five – 9.77 percent compared to 8.44 percent, respectively. Conclusion: Due to population momentum, Kenya’s population is set to grow by almost one million people annually between 2019 and 2050 while the elderly population is set to more than double during the same period. It is critical that considerations are made on expanding retirement age bands to allow the geriatric population to remain labour productive and contribute positively to economic growth. Meantime, the elderly population is important for enhancing social skills and cultural knowledge transfers at community level.