Dynamics of Population Ageing in Nepal and the Need for Action

Abstract

Over the past decades, the problem of ageing has grown steadily in Nepal. The demographic measures obtained from different population censuses of Nepal amply demonstrate this. In this context, the present study attempts to analyze population census 2011 data to assess elderly population across the nation by area types, eco-belts, development regions and by gender perspective through computation of major population ageing indicators for these cross-sectional areas of Nepal. The analysis showed that the indicators like median age, proportion of elderly population, elderly dependency ratio and life expectancy at birth have increased significantly in 2011 census compared to 2001 census stressing the need of appropriate actions for the management, welfare and care of elderly people in Nepal. Even though population ageing is found more evident in urban areas regarding median age and index of ageing, percent elderly population aged 60 and above and elderly dependency are actually higher in rural areas which can be attributed to more out-migration of young people in rural areas. Eco-belt-wise, elderly dependency is found higher in mountain but other ageing indicators are at higher levels in hills. Development region-wise, western region shows relatively more ageing stress compared to other regions except that median age is found highest in the central region. Additionally, two semi-log statistical models that fit well are also built to associate percent elderly populations of Nepal with crude birth rate based upon population censuses of Nepal.