Keep, Toss, or Fix? Assessing US Alliances in East Asia

Abstract

With strategic circumstances changing in Asia, and with a fiscal imperative to reduce defense spending, the United States will face hard choices about its national security strategy and the alliances that support it. This paper examines the future of U.S. alliances in East Asia during an era of strategic and budgetary change. I describe the U.S. alliance system in the region, and the goals that these alliances are meant to achieve. I next evaluate the extent to which U.S. alliances in East Asia advance these goals, and conclude that they advance many but not all U.S. objectives. I then describe the costs and risks that are associated with U.S. security guarantees in East Asia. I conclude by describing options to reduce these costs and risks: first, the more radical option of shifting to an “offshore balancing” strategy, and second, options for restructuring U.S. alliances and reforming U.S. diplomacy while continuing the current U.S. grand strategy of “global leadership.”