Kazakhstan’s Irreversible Disarmament

Abstract

ABSTRACT Kazakhstan presents an interesting and important real-life case of disarmament irreversibility. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Kazakhstan inherited the fourth largest nuclear arsenal in the world – more than a thousand nuclear warheads, dozens of heavy bombers, and more than a hundred intercontinental ballistic missiles. The legal status of the Soviet weapons left in Kazakhstan was not formalized until March of 1994 when, under Kazakhstan-Russia agreements, the weapons were identified as the property of the Russian Federation temporarily located in Kazakhstan. In addition to weapons and delivery systems, Kazakhstan fully controlled tons of nuclear material and nuclear facilities, including the former Soviet nuclear testing site at Semipalatinsk. Kazakhstan made a strategic decision to give up not only Soviet nuclear weapons but also nuclear material and weapons-related infrastructure. At the same time, Kazakhstan has been keen on developing nuclear technology for peaceful purposes: it is the world’s largest uranium producer, continues to advance its nuclear fuel cycle capability (except for uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing), and plans to introduce nuclear power. Kazakhstan’s case lends itself well to an examination: What constitutes the irreversibility of nuclear disarmament of a given country? Why does the international community have confidence in Kazakhstan’s non-nuclear weapons credentials despite its advanced nuclear sector and a lack of detailed records on the Soviet nuclear inheritance?