July 2020 heavy rainfall in Japan: effect of real-time river discharge on ocean circulation based on a coupled river-ocean model

Abstract

In July 2020, a stationary atmospheric front over Japan caused persistent, nearly continuous rain for most of the month that resulted in new historical highest rainfall records in several areas and caused serious river floods, landslides, and debris-flow events. An existing hindcast and forecast ocean circulation model that includes climatological discharge information of major rivers failed to represent the extreme river discharge under heavy rainfall. New experiments were conducted using real-time river discharge information based on Today's Earth CaMa-Flood simulation that includes 368 rivers in Japan. The inclusion of real-time river discharge improved the salinity bias in the near-surface waters. The differences were significant compared to the observations in the heavy rain region (i.e., Ariake Bay and Tosa Bay), and insignificant at offshore stations. The ensemble experiments of real-time river discharge cases suggested the difference between the climatological and the real-time river discharge experiments was not random, but was robust. The freshening water changed the shelf circulation, and its far-reaching effect appeared hundreds of kilometers away from the shore. Passive particle tracking was conducted for examining the cross-shelf exchange. More particles released from Bungo Channel went offshore in near-surface water when the real-time river discharge was used compared to using the climatology discharge. Particles released in Tosa Bay, Seto Inland Sea, and Kii Channel showed the opposite tendency. The real-time river discharge not only changed the modeled coastal salinity distribution, but also the coastal and offshore currents. The role of the real-time river discharge on modeling normal flow periods or drought events, and its influence on a longer time scale model simulation remain to be explored.