Joys and sorrows of living in an uncertain world

Abstract

This chapter aims to explore the relationship between planning and uncertainty and, more extensively, the relationship between anthropic organizations and the environment. Planning plays a key role in urban organizations, which are complex socio-technical systems distributed in possibly large spatial locations. The planner is required to reflect on the degree of complexity about the risks and the unforeseeable situations, and eventually unexpected opportunities. To do so, the planner should be conscious of complex scenarios, that one cannot imagine a priori, and potentially relate these scenarios with the deep unknown, new spaces of uncertainty and ignorance (on the knowledge side) and provide spaces to the willingness to act (on the action side). The chapter refers to the ‘black swan theory’ by Taleb (2007) and the impact that unexpected events can have on our view and in our history. The interplay between knowledge and ICT can reduce the unknown area and increase the space for resilience and the ‘splendid unicorns’ actions. Such a change marks a shift of the ‘window’ of knowledge and actions across an ‘ideal’ space of knowledge/action: more knowledge (and more consciousness of unknown) leads to larger variety insights and scenarios