Abstract
The magnitudes of river floods in Europe have been observed to change, but their alignment with changes in the spatial coverage or extent of individual floods has not been clear. We analyze flood magnitudes and extents for 3,872 hydrometric stations across Europe over the past five decades and classify each flood based on antecedent weather conditions. We find positive correlations between flood magnitudes and extents for 95% of the stations. In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude‐extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes. The alignment of trends in flood magnitudes and extents highlights the increasing importance of transnational flood risk management.
Highlights
River floods are among the most harmful natural hazards worldwide, and their damages are expected to increase further as a consequence of climate change, population and economic growth, and rising economic interdependence (Dottori et al, 2018; Field et al, 2012; Kundzewicz et al, 2014; UNDRR, 2019)
In central Europe and the British Isles, the association of increasing trends in magnitudes and extents is due to a magnitude‐extent correlation of precipitation and soil moisture along with a shift in the flood generating processes
The presence of magnitude‐extent relationships of the controls suggests that they propagate to the floods
Summary
River floods are among the most harmful natural hazards worldwide, and their damages are expected to increase further as a consequence of climate change, population and economic growth, and rising economic interdependence (Dottori et al, 2018; Field et al, 2012; Kundzewicz et al, 2014; UNDRR, 2019). In Europe, trends in flood magnitudes have been identified (Blöschl et al, 2019; Jongman et al, 2014; Mangini et al, 2018). These trends vary in space because of differences in the flood generating processes. In Europe, the flood extent, that is, the area or distance over which flooding occurs simultaneously, has been found to change (Berghuijs et al, 2019), but the alignment of these changes with changes in the flood magnitudes has not been studied. An alignment of flood magnitude and flood extent trends has the potential of increasing the flood risk beyond the effects of the individual trends. If there are clear physical causes, the alignment may translate into the future
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