Joint Risk Analysis of Extreme Rainfall and High Tide Level Based on Extreme Value Theory in Coastal Area.

Abstract

Extreme rainfall and high tide levels are the main causal factors of urban flood disasters in coastal areas. As complex interactions between these factors can exacerbate the impact of urban flood disasters in coastal areas, an associated flood risk assessment involves not only the estimation of the extreme values of each variable but also their probability of occurring simultaneously. With a consideration of the Shenzhen River Basin (China), this study used bivariate copula functions to quantitatively evaluate the joint risk of extreme rainfall and a high tide level. The results showed that a significant positive correlation exists between extreme rainfall and the corresponding high tide level, and that if the positive dependency was ignored, the probability of simultaneous extreme events would be underestimated. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which heavy rainfall and high tide level events occur concurrently, the "AND" joint return period based on the annual maxima method should be adopted. If a dangerous event is defined as one in which either only a heavy rainfall or a high tide level event occurs, the "OR" joint return period should be adopted. The results represent a theoretical basis and decision-making support for flood risk management and flood prevention/reduction in coastal areas.