Joint Choice Model for Airport Passengers’ Travel Mode and Departure Time Based on Agent Theory

Abstract

Numerous strategies have been proposed to modify and transform passengers’ travel mode and departure time with the purpose of mitigating landside traffic pressure of airports. A core solution to tackle this problem is to build a travel behavior model so that pertinent predictions about the extent to which passengers shift their patterns of travel can hopefully be obtained. This paper aims at studying the passengers’ behaviors with respect to the travel mode and departure time based on agent theory. What distinguishes this model from traditional utility maximization theory is that it specifically places emphasis on the decision-making process with imperfect information and bounded rationality. Passengers continuously renew their knowledge of time management and their surrounding environment in the duration of the Bayesian learning process. It is evident that decisions about whether to substitute their current travel mode and departure time will be given thoughtful consideration before traveling, in relation to their presumptive gain and cost for searching. When performing additional searches, passengers tend to depend on a range of decision-making conditions to determine the necessity of converting to a new travel pattern. The process of both searching and deciding can be indicated by production (if–then) rules. These rules basically stem from the data gathered from Nanjing Lukou International Airport (NKG). Furthermore, this paper studies and discusses to what extent passengers will change their travel behaviors under variable costs of public transportation. Finally, this paper provides some recommendations on how to formulate appropriate subway fares.