Jaringan Saraf Tiruan untuk Memprediksi Jumlah Pertumbuhan Penduduk di Dinas Kependudukan dan Pencatatan Sipil Kabupate Sumba Barat Daya

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to create a JST (artificial neural network) model that can forecast population growth at the Population and Civil Registration Office of West Sumba Regency. population growth at the Population and Civil Registration Office of West Sumba Regency. Regency. Regional development planning must consider the increasing number of population, therefore proper forecasting is essential to encourage sustainable policies and initiatives. sustainable policies and initiatives. Because it can identify complex patterns in past data and produce more accurate forecasts than traditional techniques, an ANN model is used. traditional techniques, the ANN model is used. The data used in this study is the population growth of Southwest Sumba Regency over the past including characteristics such as birth and death rates and population movements. deaths and population movements. The backpropagation algorithm is used to optimize the multilayer perceptron (MLP) architecture for ANN training. Separating the data into training and testing sets and assessing the models model using metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) based on the error. Error (RMSE) based on the prediction error are the steps involved in the training process. involved in the training process. The research findings show that, with a low level of error, the artificial neural network model can estimate the population increase in Southwest Sumba Regency with a reasonable level of accuracy. reasonable level of accuracy. The model is expected to serve as a reference for relevant authorities to better manage population data and as a tool to create more focused and successful population policies.