Japan's China Policy: Implications for U.S.-Japan Relations

Abstract

Developments in U.S.-China relations provide frequent fodder for the American media. Sino-Japanese relations, however, though rarely any warmer and certainly no less fragile, attract its attention only occasionally. Given America's tendency to view the world in Washington-centered terms, this oversight is hardly surprising-but it is nonetheless unfortunate. Ties between East Asia's two major powers-one a staunch U.S. ally, the other an uncertain partner not easily termed friend or foe-will do much to define America's future relationship with East Asia. As China emerges on the world stage, the ability of Tokyo and Beijing to manage bilateral ties peacefully will become a challenge of central geopolitical importance. Events over the past few years suggest that the consequences of failing to meet this challenge could be severe. Sino-Japanese relations began a downward spiral in August 1995, when China ignored Japanese protests in conducting its second nuclear test of the year. Tokyo responded to the underground blast by suspending a portion of its development assistance to Beijing. Although the frozen funds represented only a small percentage of Japan's overall aid to China-and were restored less than two years laterthe move represented a striking departure from Tokyo's normally nonconfrontational diplomacy. Officials in Beijing denounced the action, counseling Tokyo to recall the wartime suffering Japan inflicted on the Chinese people. The situation thereafter appeared to go from bad to worse. China's military exercises off the coast of Taiwan shortly before the island's first free presidential elections in March 1996 shocked the Japanese people. The provocative actions generated sympathy in Japan for President Lee Teng-hui of