Abstract
JACQUES BERNOULLI'S Ars conjectandi presents the most decisive conceptual innovations in the early history of probability.1 It begins a struggle among several conceptions of probability that has not yet been resolved. Its chief mathematical contribution is plain enough: here is the first major limit theorem in probability theory. But since we still lack an adequate understanding of how to apply probability mathematics, no one writes dispassionately about Bernoulli. He has been fathered with the first subjective concept of probability, and with a completely objective concept of probability as relative frequency determined by trials on a chance set-up. He has
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