Abstract
In this article, we discuss some issues concerning magical thinking—forms of thought and association mechanisms characteristic of early stages of mental development. We also examine good reasons for having an ambivalent attitude concerning the later permanence in life of these archaic forms of association, and the coexistence of such intuitive but informal thinking with logical and rigorous reasoning. At the one hand, magical thinking seems to serve the creative mind, working as a natural vehicle for new ideas and innovative insights, and giving form to heuristic arguments. At the other hand, it is inherently difficult to control, lacking effective mechanisms needed for rigorous manipulation. Our discussion is illustrated with many examples from the Hebrew Bible, and some final examples from modern science.
Highlights
For the last 20 years, the Bayesian research group at IME-USP has been developing the FBST, namely, the Full Bayesian Significance Test statistical framework based on a novel measure of Statistical Significance, ev(H |X), namely, the e value or the epistemic value of hypothesis H given the observed data X
Our and other research groups are conducting a systematic exploration of the intrinsic properties of the FBST framework, and studying the implications and consequences of its use, including pragmatical use and performance aspects, see for example Diniz et al (2011, 2012), Johnson et al (2009), and Lauretto et al (2003, 2009); theoretical statistics properties, see for example Madruga et al (2001), Pereira et al (2008), and Stern (2011a, b); and logical properties, see for example Izbicki and Esteves (2015), Stern (2004), Borges and Stern (2007), and Stern and Pereira (2014)
Statistical science has been developed according to very strict Positivist guide lines, according to which, directly observable quantities should always be the primary focus of analysis, while parameters, i.e., quantities related to nonobservables, should be regarded as second-class entities in statistical or scientific models
Summary
For the last 20 years, the Bayesian research group at IME-USP has been developing the FBST, namely, the Full Bayesian Significance Test statistical framework based on a novel measure of Statistical Significance, ev(H |X), namely, the e value or the epistemic value of hypothesis H given the observed data X. From the previous paragraphs in this introduction, we conclude that the FBST + cognitive constructivism epistemological framework has the potential to completely reverse the traditionally low status attributed to non-observable entities in statistical models, see Stern (2007b, 2011a, 2015a) In this new epistemological framework, parametric quantities, latent (hidden) variables, and causal relations can be legitimized and be brought (back) to the center stage of scientific activity and discourse. Practice and development of science of causal explanations telling why things are the way they do, see Planck (1915, 1950) and Stern (2015a) These insightful narratives and intuitive explanations based on causal links, abstract objects, and all sorts of non-observable entities are labeled as unacceptable metaphysical explanations in a positivist framework but, under the right conditions, are welcome and perfectly acceptable in the FBST + cognitive constructivism epistemological framework. Additional information may be provided by the page number for relevant words and radicals at Ernest Klein’s etymological dictionary: Klein (1987, p.number)
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