Abstract
Direct and Database Marketing have within them a capacity for deterministic thinking that is far less marked in other marketing disciplines. Classic direct marketing presumes that relationships between customer and service or product provider are both bounded in their nature and knowable. The end result of such assumptions can be an over-reliance on statistical modelling techniques: the use of simplistic models in relation to situations that are highly complex, or a search for spurious precision. This article looks at an area – climate change – that is remote from the discipline of marketing and uses this to illustrate some of the major pitfalls of the modelling approach. These principles are then further developed by reference to examples drawn from real-life marketing practice. Further extrapolation from the climate change example is used to argue against expending too many resources on developing an over-elaborate modelling system or excess accuracy.
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