Israel's National Security Amidst Unrest in the Arab World

Abstract

Despite all the optimism accompanying the uprisings of 2011, the Arab Middle East remains a stagnant region in deep socio —political crisis with little chance for positive change anytime soon. The current regimes may stay in power or get replaced by new dictatorships, moderate or radical. Either way, in the near future, weak states will continue to grapple with domestic problems and the direction of their foreign policies. For good reason, this situation has Israeli leaders worried about the implications for their country’s national security. The changing regional balance of power favors Turkey and Iran, both of whom encourage radical elements in the region, not Israel, while the seeming decline in U.S. clout has negatively affected both the Arab —Israeli peace process and Israel’s deterrent power. Israeli society has displayed great resilience facing national security challenges in the past. Most Israelis understand that they live in a rough neighborhood which has the potential to become even more brutish rather quickly. The good news is that, although the regional security environment has deteriorated, Israel remains a strong state. The power differential between Israel and its neighbors is larger than ever, which will allow Israel to meet most challenges on its own. But make no mistake: Israel is facing greater regional isolation, more terror, threats to the sea lanes as well as energy resources in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the prospects of a nuclear Iran.