Is This Time Different? Comparative Analysis of Supply Shocks in the 1970s and 2020s

Abstract

Based on the supply shocks in the 1970s and 2020s, this study discusses the similarities and differences between the two periods qualitatively. While both periods experienced price increases due to reliance on imported oil and stock market crashes, there are distinct factors that make a repeat of stagflation unlikely. The current labor market remains strong, and inflation is showing signs of slowing down. In addition, the bargaining power is weaker now than in the 1970s; higher productivity resulting from innovative technology and the trend of a more integrated global economy, which help to mitigate the impact of inflation. Policy solutions are proposed to address the challenges of easing supply pressure, promoting industrial development, and ensuring employment. The three key policy suggestions are as follows: energy transition incentives, research and development grants, skills development initiatives. By adopting these policies, it is believed that governments will address supply pressure, foster industrial development and promote employment.