Is there an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports and imports in the Central, East and Southeast European countries?

Abstract

ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to assess the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of 17 Central, East and Southeast European (CESEE) countries. For this purpose, the linear and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and annual data for the 1995–2020 period were used. Empirical results of the assessment showed an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on exports in nine countries and a symmetric effect on exports in four countries. Similarly, an asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on the imports of 10 countries and a symmetric effect on the imports of five countries were found. Research implications of this study are important to enable policy makers to understand that results obtained in earlier studies through the linear model may lead to incorrect views about the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports and imports of CESEE countries.