Is There a Chinese “Developmental peace”? Evidence from the Belt and Road Initiative’s Impact on Conflict States

Abstract

ABSTRACT In the ten years since its inception, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has attracted significant attention for its transformative impact on geopolitics, international developmental aid and the environment of member countries. A comparatively understudied aspect is the clustering of BRI investments in conflict-affected states. Here, the BRI’s impact is potentially even greater, but highly ambiguous: on the one hand, it is providing much-needed development financing to countries with unattractive risk profiles, thus potentially contributing to their stabilization. On the other, this influx of capital risks exacerbating antagonisms over resource distribution and project control, creating additional grievances resulting from a lack of oversight, and reigniting conflicts along existing political fault lines. This article examines the BRI’s transformative impact on conflict-affected states, by focusing on effects on local conflict dynamics, the legitimacy of governing institutions and outright political violence. It establishes general patterns of BRI investments and their conflict exposure, and investigates these dynamics in more detail through case studies on Pakistan and Myanmar. Finally, it analyzes which BRI-specific practices have shaped its conflict impact, and how these could be improved.