Abstract
Timing of menarche has largely been studied in the context of a secular trend. However, since mortality and fertility rates are fundamental demographic factors linked to a population’s developmental and reproductive characteristics, we expect that the timing of menarche, a precondition to reproduction, is also associated with these vital rates. We conduct an analysis of 89 countries and 21 demographic, socioeconomic, nutritional, and educational variables selected for their known influence on menarche. Model results predict that a country’s fertility and adult female mortality rates are significant predictors of mean age at menarche, while other covariates are not. Specifically, menarche is delayed in countries with high mortality and high fertility, which may be proxies for assessing overall environmental quality. We emphasize that, for a comprehensive understanding of the timing of menarche, it is critical to take into account both individual- and population-level influences.
Highlights
Menarche is a key life history event shaping the onset of a female’s reproductive career [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]
Nutritional and health factors that have been the focus of much research include energy intake, body mass index (BMI), consumption of particular macronutrients such as sugar or fat [25,26,27,28] or alcohol [29]; for a detailed overview of covariates and studies, see S1 Table
Because we are interested in age at menarche as an understudied but critical and discreet life history marker that is theoretically predicted to be sensitive to environmental circumstances, our goal is to first evaluate if such an association emerges between background mortality and fertility conditions
Summary
Menarche is a key life history event shaping the onset of a female’s reproductive career [1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8]. Unlike other pubertal characteristics that manifest gradually (e.g. breast and pubic hair development, fat deposition, and the adolescent growth spurt), menarche is a discreet event [6,9]. As such, it is a useful, but underrepresented, variable in demographic research [7]. While age at menarche clearly has a genetic component [1,21,22], earlier ages at its onset are attributed to a variety of lifestyle and socioeconomic factors, including residence in a rural or urban setting, country economics (e.g. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)), family income, parental or sibling education, family size or exposure to environmental chemicals [23,24]. Nutritional and health factors that have been the focus of much research include energy intake, body mass index (BMI), consumption of particular macronutrients such as sugar or fat [25,26,27,28] or alcohol [29]; for a detailed overview of covariates and studies, see S1 Table
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