Is the Non-disclosure Policy of Audit Intensity Always Effective? A Theoretical Exploration

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Abstract This study theoretically explores the effectiveness of the non-disclosure policy of audit intensity using the portfolio choice approach. In our setting, audit intensity follows a two-state Markov chain, which is not disclosed by the tax authority, and agents will exploit the available information to learn the state and accordingly make tax evasion decisions. We find that the effectiveness of the non-disclosure policy in reducing tax evasion and increasing tax revenues depends on the proportion of time in the high-intensity state. Interestingly, when this proportion is high during a period, the disclosure policy is more effective.