Abstract
Despite evidence that conspecific lineages may display different climatic tolerances, most invasion risk assessment tools are calibrated without considering phylogeographic information. This study aims to investigate the existence of intraspecific niche divergence within a group of insect pests and to explore how the inclusion of phylogeographic information into species distribution models may alter the estimation of the potential distribution of a species. We studied North American bark beetles belonging to the genus Dendroctonus, a group of pests of conifers that are listed as quarantine species in numerous countries. Most Dendroctonus species exhibit strong genetic divergence that appears to be geographically structured and shaped by historical events and biotic factors. We modeled all lineage distributions within five species, using MaxEnt and Boosted Regression Trees, and compared the results with the models fitted at the species scale. Multivariate analysis and niche similarity and equivalency tests were additionally performed to investigate the existence and magnitude of climatic niche divergence between conspecific lineages. We also tested the ability of lineage‐based models to predict the region invaded by D. valens in China. Conspecific lineages showed a climatic niche more similar than expected by chance, but displayed different climatic envelopes in their native range and, consequently, different estimates of potential distributions. We also observed that classical models calibrated using the entire range of the species could potentially under‐ or overestimate the potential range of the species when compared to a global prediction built by aggregating lineage‐based projections. This study showed that the invasive phylogeographic lineage of D. valens has invaded regions characterized by climatic conditions highly similar to those encountered in its native range suggesting that preadaptations to environment might have played a role in this invasion. This study highlights how our perception of the invasion risk of pests may be altered when integrating phylogeographic information.
Highlights
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not
We studied North American bark beetles belonging to the genus Dendroctonus, a group of pests of conifers that are listed as quarantine species in numerous countries
The Principal component analysis (PCA) discriminated lineages of D. valens, D. pseudotsugae, D. rufipennis according to temperature-related variables such as minimum temperatures and temperature seasonality
Summary
HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. Despite evidence that conspecific lineages may display different climatic tolerances, most invasion risk assessment tools are calibrated without considering phylogeographic information. This study aims to investigate the existence of intraspecific niche divergence within a group of insect pests and to explore how the inclusion of phylogeographic information into species distribution models may alter the estimation of the potential distribution of a species. Considerable attention has been paid to describe these patterns and to identify the underlying processes that may involve historical events, dispersal limits, geographic barriers, biotic interactions or ecological niche evolution (Avise et al 1987, Marske et al 2013) Because they share a recent common ancestor, conspecific lineages often display similar climatic tolerances (Peterson et al 1999, Martínez‐Meyer et al 2004, Kozak and Wiens 2006, Peterson 2011, Araújo et al 2013). Understanding how phylogeographic structures correspond to different climatic tolerances has received increasing attention especially in the context of invasion biology and climate change (Lachmuth et al 2010, Pearman et al 2010, Thompson et al 2011, Rey et al 2012, Schulte et al 2012, D’Amen et al 2013, Guisan et al 2014, Godefroid et al 2015, Strubbe et al 2015)
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