Abstract
We mathematicians have handy ways of discovering what stands a chance of being true. And we have a range of different modes of evidence that help us form these expectations; such as: analogies with things that are indeed true, computations, special case justifications, etc. They abound, these methods—explicitly formulated, or not. They lead us, sometimes, to a mere hint of a possibility that a mathematical statement might be plausible. They lead us, other times, to substantially firm—even though not yet justified—belief. They may lead us astray. Our end-game, of course, is understanding, verification, clarification, and most certainly: proof; truth, in short. Consider the beginning game, though. With the word “plausible” in my title, you can guess that I’m a fan of George Polya’s classic Mathematics and Plausible Reasoning ([?]).
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