Is Energy Policy on the Right Track for the Climate Target in the Korean Building Sector?

Abstract

The building sector in Korea is one of the key end-use sectors in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sector currently accounts for about one-fifth of economy-wide final energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we project a business as usual (BAU) scenario for energy and GHG emissions for the building sector based on the government energy forecast, and then develop a couple of policy scenarios which reflect the current state of energy policy. We compare each policy scenario and some combinations with already-pledged climate policy targets to determine whether energy and climate polices are inherently consistent and, if not, how much of an emission gap exists. The most aggressive energy policy combination can only curb the emissions level at 139 MtCO2e by 2020, which falls 14% short of the climate target of 123 MtCO2e. Beyond 2020, the lowest emissions pathway of the current energy policy can only go as low as 115 MtCO2e by 2035. These findings provide supporting evidence that there is a discrepancy between current energy policy and climate change policy and suggest that effective policy coordination is necessary among government ministries in setting a credible long-term climate policy target.