Abstract
Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility–development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed.
Highlights
Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development
Within European countries, sub-national regions vary in their levels of income/development and fertility, which can be adequately captured with cross-country comparative data
Our analysis focuses on Europe, as previous work has shown that a number of highly developed European countries appear to be susceptible to a reversal in the fertility– income relationship (Luci-Greulich and Thevenon 2014; Myrskylaet al. 2009, 2011)
Summary
A vast literature has documented the negative relationship between income or development and fertility (e.g. Becker 1960; Cleland and Wilson 1987; Goldstein and Klusener 2014; Guinnane 2011; Oppenheim Mason 1997). The incentive to invest in quality over quantity can be amplified by enhanced social mobility opportunities, which have mostly emerged in centres of economic activity (Lipset and Bendix 1991) This likely increased the propensity that shifts from quantity to quality occurred first in highly developed areas, and this may have contributed to the negative association between economic development and fertility across regions within European countries. The shift of employment to factories and commercial zones increased especially among employees in highly developed urban areas the likeliness to be away from home for a substantial part of the day Many of these new employment opportunities absorbed female workers, who had previously been under-utilised in formal labour markets (Blythell 1993; Kocka 1990). These financial and opportunity costs fostered a negative relationship between economic development and fertility levels at the sub-national level
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