Abstract
Educational differences in female cohort fertility vary strongly across high-income countries and over time, but knowledge about how educational fertility differentials play out at the sub-national regional level is limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, as regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. This study provides for the first time for a large number of European countries a comprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise data from population registers, censuses, and large-sample surveys for 15 countries to measure women’s completed fertility by educational level and region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educational differences in CFRs and levels of economic development, we link our data to regional GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in the regional fertility estimates. We document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable regional variation in the gradient. The steepness of the gradient is inversely related to the economic development level. It is steepest in the least developed regions and close to zero in the most developed regions. This tendency is observed within countries as well as across all regions of all countries. Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higher levels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth sub-national-level fertility analyses by education.
Highlights
Research on variation in fertility in contemporary societies often focuses on the relationship between education and fertility (Gustafsson and Kalwij 2006; Kreyenfeld and Konietzka 2017; Sobotka et al 2017)
This study aims to describe the educational gradient of the female cohort fertility rate (CFR) at the regional level in contemporary Europe
Turning to the CFRs by education, it is relevant to note that the cross-country average of the share of women in each educational category is 32% for tertiary, 53% for medium (36–73%), and 16% for low (2–29%) (“Appendix 2”)
Summary
Research on variation in fertility in contemporary societies often focuses on the relationship between education and fertility (Gustafsson and Kalwij 2006; Kreyenfeld and Konietzka 2017; Sobotka et al 2017). There is evidence that the typically negative relationship between women’s education and fertility has varied across place (Beaujouan et al 2016; Klesment et al.2014; Van Bavel et al 2018; Wood et al.2014) and time (Andersson et al 2009; Jalovaara et al 2019; Kravdal and Rindfuss 2008; Neels and De Wachter 2010). As regionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility outcomes (Basten et al.2012; de Beer and Deerenberg 2007; Kulu 2013), exploring this dimension might improve our understanding of observed national-level patterns in educational gradients in fertility (Snyder 2001). A perspective beyond the national level has value in light of globalisation theories predicting that affluent, developed sub-national regions across countries will become more similar to each other over time, while regional differences in living conditions within countries will increase (Veltz 2014). An empirical sub-national regional approach is essential for finding out whether such tendencies, with potential relevance for regional variation in educational gradients in fertility, exist
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