Abstract
Land Use Regression (LUR) modeling is a widely used technique to model the spatial variability of air pollutants in epidemiology. In this study, we explore whether a LUR model can predict home-to-school commuting exposure to black carbon (BC). During January and February 2019, 43 children walking to school were involved in a personal monitoring campaign measuring exposure to BC and tracking their home-to-school routes. At the same time, a previously developed LUR model for the study area was applied to estimate BC exposure on points along the route. Personal BC exposure varied widely with mean ± SD of 9003 ± 4864 ng/m3. The comparison between the two methods showed good agreement (Pearson’s r = 0.74, Lin’s Concordance Correlation Coefficient = 0.6), suggesting that LUR estimates are capable of catching differences among routes and predicting the cleanest route. However, the model tends to underestimate absolute concentrations by 29% on average. A LUR model can be useful in predicting personal exposure and can help urban planners in Milan to build a healthier city for schoolchildren by promoting less polluted home-to-school routes.
Highlights
Land Use Regression (LUR) modeling is a widely used technique to model the spatial variability of air pollutants
In cities, where an important part of pollution is from traffic, identifying spatial patterns of traffic-related air pollutants (TRAP) is fundamental to enhance the accuracy of exposure assessment [3]
Personal exposure to black carbon (BC) in urban environments is of high health concern to many people, and even more so for schoolchildren traveling to school during rush hours [11]
Summary
Land Use Regression (LUR) modeling is a widely used technique to model the spatial variability of air pollutants. This approach was used in both urban and non-urban environments, usually with the aim of better predicting exposures in large epidemiological cohorts [1,2]. TRAP in urban areas has been one of the main health issues in the past years [7,8], and the traffic-related air pollutant Black Carbon (BC) has gained a primary role in this research field [9,10]. Personal exposure to BC in urban environments is of high health concern to many people, and even more so for schoolchildren traveling to school during rush hours [11].
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