Abstract
AbstractThe anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran's water availability. This has major implications for Iran's agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran's agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period. Despite decreasing water availability during this period, irrigated agricultural production and area continuously increased. This unsustainable agricultural development, which would have been impossible without the overabstraction of surface and ground water resources, has major long‐term water, food, environmental, and human security implications for Iran.
Highlights
Iran is currently experiencing water bankruptcy, with its water consumption exceeding the country's renewable freshwater budget (Madani et al, 2016)
Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran's agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period
Agriculture plays an essential role in providing food security and socioeconomic stability
Summary
Iran is currently experiencing water bankruptcy, with its water consumption exceeding the country's renewable freshwater budget (Madani et al, 2016). The country had the ambitious target of becoming fully self‐sufficient in food production (Amid, 2007; Bakhshoodeh & Thomson, 2001; Emami et al, 2018; Madani, 2014; Mesgaran et al, 2017) to satisfy its growing population that is over 80 million people This target has not been fully realized, food security has remained as top national priority in Iran given that fact that for decades the country has been under major international economic sanctions (Danaei et al, 2019; Madani, 2014) with the potential to jeopardize the country's ability to import food. Iran's increasing water shortage (Ashraf et al, 2019)
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