Investment Potential of Private Forests in Croatia

Abstract

This paper presents a comprehensive financial analysis of the investment potential of seven private forest categories in the Republic of Croatia (total study area of 268,072 ha). It covers the period from 2018 to 2048 and includes forest purchase costs, management simulation, timber transport to mills, timber processing and veneer production, and finally the selling of sawmill, veneer and forest products. Data from the Croatian National Forest Inventory and forest habitats map were used as a basis for analyses. Spatial data on private forests, roads and timber process plants at the national level were also integrated into the analyses. For the forest management simulation, the MOSES 3.0 simulator was used, and the QGis 3.4 software was used for spatial analyses of forests, roads and mils. Based on data from several world stock exchanges that cover companies of the forestry sector, a real (inflation-free) discount rates were used. The financial analyses showed which forest categories have positive investment potential and under which conditions. Results pointed out that multi-aged European beech forests have the highest internal rate of return (8.45%) and are the only one which would meet the expectations of a financially rational investor using criteria of a risk-adjusted inflation-free discount rate of 8%.