Investigation of Wind Power Potential in Mthatha, Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Abstract

South Africa is currently grappling with a national energy crisis and the high infrastructure costs associated with expanding the national grid to remote areas. Simultaneously, the government has made substantial efforts to harness renewable energy technologies, particularly wind energy. The average wind speed in a specific region significantly influences the energy yield from wind turbines. The vast open inland terrains, mountainous regions, and coastal areas in the Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, and Western Cape provinces of South Africa possess the most substantial wind potential. It is imperative to initiate wind energy projects in these provinces to cater to a significant portion of the local electricity demand, especially in remote areas disconnected from the national grid. Wind energy generation is inherently stochastic, subject to variations in both time and space. Consequently, it is essential to gain a comprehensive understanding of the local wind patterns to assess the feasibility of utilizing wind resources. In the Eastern Cape Province, the Mthatha area still lags in household electrification, presenting an opportunity to electrify some households using wind energy. This study aimed to evaluate the wind resource potential for Mthatha area, utilizing data spanning from 2018 to 2023, provided by the South African Weather Services. Two distribution models, the two-parameter Weibull and three-parameter Weibull, were employed to characterize the provided wind data. To determine the parameters associated with each distribution model, two estimation methods, the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and the Method of Moments (MOM), were utilized. The performance of these distribution models was assessed using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) statistical indicator. The results showed that Mthatha area predominantly experiences low wind speeds, with an annual average wind speed of 3.30 m/s and an overall wind power density of approximately 48.48 W/m2. The prevailing winds predominantly originate from the south and east–southeast directions. Consequently, Mthatha is recommended for stand-alone applications, with the added suggestion of augmented wind turbines for the area.