Abstract
The effects of the projected proportion of a blast tank on the ground distribution of fragments, the probability of impact with a target, the rupture probability of the impacted target, and the risk of domino effect were investigated using Monte Carlo simulation. The results showed that the number of fragments between the actual projected ranges derived without considering the projected proportion was much larger than that obtained considering the projected proportion. The fragments were projected to large distance up to 1200 m based on the historical explosive vessels. The probability of fragment impact derived considering the projected proportion was lower than the corresponding one obtained without considering the projected proportion at each value of distance. The rupture probability of the target depended very little on the projected proportion of the blast vessel, but the risk of domino effect was influenced by the projected proportion. Hence, the effect of the projected proportion of the burst vessel on the risk of domino effect was found to be significant.
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