Abstract
The study focused on the establishment of the congestion degree in describing the layout of process plants, and discovering the influence mechanism of congestion degree on the risk of domino effect, in view of the fact that the congestion degree has not been used to represent the characteristics of petrochemical plant layout. A characterization model was built for the congestion degree of process plant layouts applying the theory of fuzzy model that it took safety distance, the amount of materials involved and the hazard of these substances into consideration, and came out with a membership function through logical calculus, which made congestion degree a comparable data. Secondly, a systematic domino effect risk analysis method was generalized on account of domino effect quantitative risk analysis method which include the equipment damage probability, the domino effect occurrence probability, risk analysis based on the consequences, individual risk index and social risk index, the process plant natural risk index and real risk index, and then these indices were compared to select the most suitable ones to illustrate the risk of domino effect and to research about part of the storage tank field of a petrochemical plant. Finally, the influence mechanism of layout congestion degree on domino effect of regional accident was obtained through this quantitative analysis. Simultaneously, a range of the congestion degree was acquired according to the individual risk index which can be used as a reference in the design stage of the process plant. The result proved that high congestion degree in process plant greatly increased the risk of domino effect in most of the quantitative risk analysis index, such as the probability of resulting in secondary accidents, the harm on both human and the equipments caused by the initial accident, and the individual risk and social risk, etc. The characterization models for the congestion degree and the domino risk analysis method established and summarized in the study have been applied in the design stage of process plant layout to optimize the layout, and thus reduce the risk of domino effect caused by accidents.
Highlights
It will inevitably increase the amount of hazardous substances in the unit facilities as the chemical production equipment of modern industry is gradually developing towards large-scale, complex and intensive, which will greatly raise the probability of domino accidents and the severity of their consequences
Based on fuzzy mathematics and the principle of maximum membership degree, a fuzzy model of congestion degree in petrochemical plant area was established, which made the congestion degree of a certain place in petrochemical plant area can be expressed by the membership function of congestion degree, and made simultaneously the congestion degree at different locations comparable quantitatively
It was concluded that the risk of domino effect amplified with the enlargement of congestion degree in view of the consequence analysis value of accident cause, individual risk and social risk
Summary
It will inevitably increase the amount of hazardous substances in the unit facilities as the chemical production equipment of modern industry is gradually developing towards large-scale, complex and intensive, which will greatly raise the probability of domino accidents and the severity of their consequences. The concept of "congestion degree" is not defined in the layout of petrochemical plants. 2 Methods for establishing the characterization model of congestion degree of petrochemical plant distribution. The establishment of the factory layout congestion degree in the petrochemical enterprises can directly reflect the concentration of the equipment and the material in the layout of the plant area, and study the impact of plant layout congestion degree on accident severity and accident domino risk. On the basic of the above three factors, a stochastic-fuzzy model was proposed to characterize the congestion degree of petrochemical plant layout, which can be used to study the impact of the congestion degree of plant layout on the risk of accident domino effect. Stochastic-Fuzzy model for congestion degree of petrochemical plant distribution. The congestion degree of petrochemical plant layout was defined as follows
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