Investigation of Spatio–Temporal Changes in Land Use and Heat Stress Indices over Jaipur City Using Geospatial Techniques

Abstract

Heat waves are expected to intensify around the globe in the future, with a potential increase in heat stress and heat-induced mortality in the absence of adaptation measures. India has high current exposure to heat waves, and with limited adaptive capacity, impacts of increased heat waves might be quite severe. This paper presents a comparative analysis of urban heat stress/heatwaves by combining temperature and vapour pressure through two heat stress indices, i.e., Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and humidex index. For the years 1970–2000 (historical) and 2041–2060 (future), these two indicators were estimated in Jaipur. Another goal of this research is to better understand Jaipur land use changes and urban growth. For the land use study, Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI satellite data from the years 1993, 2010, and 2015 were examined. During the research period, urban settlement increased and the majority of open land is converted to urban settlements. In the coming term, all months except three, namely July to September, have seen an increase in the WBGT index values; however, these months are classified as dangerous. Humidex’s historical value has been 21.4, but in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, it will rise to 25.5 and 27.3, respectively, and slip into the danger and extreme danger categories. The NDVI and SAVI indices are also used to assess the city’s condition during various periods of heat stress. The findings suggest that people’s discomfort levels will rise in the future, making it difficult for them to work outside and engage in their usual activities.