Investigation of Global Warming Case of Antalya

Abstract

Antalya is one of the most important cities of Turkey in terms of agriculture, tourism and population. In this study, the global warming case of Antalya was investigated by using the monthly mean maximum, monthly mean minimum and monthly mean temperature data of Elmalı, Korkuteli, Antalya, Manavgat and Gazipaşa meteorology stations between 1970 and 2017. For this aim, trend analyses were performed by Mann Kendall Rank Correlation method and beginnings of trends were determined. Run, interquartile range and autocorrelation tests were applied before trend analysis test. 99.99% confidence interval was used for all tests. Run test results indicated that the data is homogenous. According autocorrelation test results, there is not autocorrelation in tha data except monthly mean minimum temperature data of Antalya station for August. Therefore, prewhitening was used for monthly mean minimum temperature data of Antalya station for August. The 12-month average value of the increasing trend was calculated as 98.33% for the mean temperature, 88.33% for the mean maximum temperature and 80% for the mean minimum temperature. The 12-month average value of the statistically significant increasing trend was calculated as 10% for the mean temperature, 5% for the mean minimum temperature and 0% for the mean maximum temperature. If 95% confidence level was used for Mann-Kendall test, the 12-month average value of the statistically significant increasing trend was calculated as 61.9% for the mean temperature, 34.5% for the mean maximum temperature and 51.2% for the mean minimum temperature. These results show that there is global warming in Antalya. The beginnings of statistically significant trends vary between 1992 and 2009. While water consumption is increasing due to increase in agriculture, tourism and population in Antalya, the global warming detected in this study shows that both water consumption and losses in water resources will increase further. Precautions are suggested in the results section.