Investigating the Wind Power Smoothing Effect Using Set Pair Analysis

Abstract

This study explores the smoothing effect on the uncertainty of the wind power fluctuations that affect a power system at points of common coupling. Set pair analysis is applied to evaluate the similarity between the power fluctuations of a single wind turbine and those of all aggregated wind turbines, based on which a quantitative index describing the wind power smoothing effect is proposed. The smoothing effect characteristics of a wind farm cluster are investigated for different numbers of wind turbines, different wind speeds, different seasons, and multiple sampling intervals. A significant smoothing effect is usually observed at a shorter sampling interval and a higher wind speed, and the smoothing effect index increases with an increase in the numbers of wind turbines and farms. Additionally, the correlation between the smoothing effect of aggregated wind farms and the forecast accuracy for the corresponding aggregated power output is examined. The experimental results indicate that the wind power forecast accuracy varies with the smoothing effect index, which is influenced by the number of wind farms. Furthermore, the aggregated output from a wind farm cluster with a higher smoothing effect index exhibits better forecasting performance than that from a single wind farm, showing that the trend of the wind power series becomes smoother due to the smoothing effect, thus enabling one-step-ahead wind power forecasting with higher accuracy.