Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe

Gemma Cremen,Carmine Galasso,Elisa Zuccolo

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-27807-2

Abstract

Here we assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. Our mapped feasibility results show that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe.

Highlights

We assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk
We focus on crustal point sources associated with large seismic hazard of engineering significance, which we define as those for which the event with a recurrence interval of 500 years is at least Mw 6.5
We found that almost half of interstation distances are less than 20 km, which corresponds with the distance limit recommended for optimum EEW performance in previous work[41]

Summary

Introduction

We assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public) to an earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. Examples of important risk-mitigation actions that can be taken in the short warning time provided by EEW systems (typically seconds) include: (1) Performing “drop, cover and hold on” (DCHO)[3] or moving to a safer location (either within a building or outside), to avoid injuries; (2) slowing down highspeed trains, to reduce accidents[4]; (3) shutting off gas pipelines, to prevent fires[5]; and (4) switching signals to stop vehicles from entering vulnerable infrastructure components (such as bridges), to avoid fatalities[6]. Alert System, which uses Android phones to issue and receive early warnings[26–29], has recently been launched in Greece as well as Turkey30), despite a strong need to develop effective measures for mitigating seismic risk across many parts of the continent[31]; EEW could potentially contribute towards reducing the more than 20 billion of European gross domestic product (GDP) that is affected annually by earthquakes (on average)[32]

Methods

Results

Conclusion