Investigating the Nexus between Inward Foreign Direct Investment and Capital Goods Imports: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan

Abstract

This research found the empirical analysis between capital goods imports and inward foreign direct investment (FDI) of Pakistan by applying the annual time series data from 1975 to 2020. The importance of this area of research arises from its role in the balance of payments by incorporating foreign direct investment in the capital goods import demand model. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique is used to estimate the long run relationship between dependent and independent variables. Furthermore, fully modified least square (FMOLS) and Dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) techniques are also applied to check the robustness of the estimated long-run results. The findings indicate that capital goods import is positively influenced by foreign direction in the case of Pakistan. Moreover, domestic income, and relative price both have theoretically correct signs. On the other hand, the coefficient of export is negatively associated with import demand, which means that capital goods imports are not used in the promotion of export growth in Pakistan. We recommend that an import substitution policy should be encouraged to divert FDI toward the promotion of export growth and hence reduce the trade deficit in Pakistan.