Investigating the influence of climate, site, location, and treatment factors on damage to young lodgepole pine in southern British Columbia

Abstract

Lodgepole pine ( Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) has been extensively planted throughout interior British Columbia, and as a result may be particularly susceptible to climate-induced changes in the range and severity of common damaging agents. We quantified the presence of 14 damaging agents in sixty-six 15- to 30-year-old pine stands. Hard pine stem rusts, primarily western gall rust, were present on every site. We used logistic regression to predict individual agent presence from climatic, location, site, and treatment factors and calculated odds ratios to evaluate whether risk to lodgepole pine increases or decreases as these factors change. Risk of damage from serious agents (stem disease, root disease, and mountain pine beetle) increased with increasing latitude; however, in several of these models, risk also increased as temperature of the coldest month got warmer. We also found evidence that increasing risk of damage from agents that are currently less serious (sequoia pitch moth, pine needle cast, and pine terminal weevil) was associated with warming and (or) increasingly dry climatic conditions. Given the predominance of lodgepole pine in northerly ecosystems and the prediction that climate change effects will increase with latitude, our results suggest the need to consider potential increases in damage from diseases and insects during silviculture planning and timber supply prediction.